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Thursday, August 02, 2012

Rogue waves, the #1 Cruise Ship Mishap.

NBCNews just posted this article entitled "4 most common cruise ship mishaps" By Monica Kim of Condé Nast Traveler.  The mishaps are:  Rogue waves,  Storms, Fires, and Collisions.

Under Rogue waves they have this to say:
Rogue waves up to 100 feet tall are a spontaneous natural phenomenon that cannot easily be predicted. In 2005, the Grand Voyager of Iberojet Cruises was smacked by a wave that knocked out propulsion and communications systems and injured 20 passengers. In 2010, the Louis Majesty, operated by Louis Cruise Lines, was struck by 26-foot waves off the coast of France, smashing glass and killing two of the 1,400 passengers and injuring another 14.
Preventive measures: Ship windows are being strengthened, and scientists are studying the prevalence of rogue waves across the ocean so that ships can be warned to avoid high-risk areas.
Effectiveness: The unpredictable nature of these waves can make them difficult to forecast. Researchers are continuing to improve their methods, in the hope of one day developing a more accurate early-warning system.
Most common reason for failure: Lack of reliable data.
I think that's pretty good a concise assessment. Designating freaque wave as a "spontaneous" natural phenomenon is rather new.  While it is intuitively clear, I have yet to say anyone use it in the general academic sense.  I guess scientist generally are incapable of coping with spontaneous things.  I especially like their last statement: "Lack of reliable data!" which I feel it is the most accurate observation or diagnose but most scientists don't think to pay much attention to it.  Prevailing scientific views may be as long as one can solve complicated equations all the answers will naturally follow suit.  The only minor details that seemed inconvenient the who processes is how do we effectively place the complicated equations over to the real ocean wave surfaces?

Yes, a more accurate early-warming system can be expected to be successfully developed "one day", one of these days!  Rossy outlook is certainly always good to hear.  But in reality that day is a long way off, not in any-body's cross-hair yet!  As long as there's no reliable data continues, the hope of developing early-warning system will continue to be a never realized hope!

Shall we get some reliable data first, anyone?


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