Real-time Earth and Moon phase

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Mr. Mooney eat crow !?

Here's the beginning of the article today by Chris Mooney (author of the book "Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming"):

Well, I am going to have to eat some crow.

Back in early October, I unwisely predicted there would be 18 Category 4 or 5 hurricanes globally in the year 2007. At the time, there had been 14. Since then there has only been one more – the incredibly devastating Cyclone Sidr – bringing the global total to 15. And with the year almost out, at this point I don't see any chance of not being wrong in my prediction.

In fact – and as we'll see – barring some sudden dramatic tropical eruption, 2007 is going to turn out to be a below-average year for overall global intense hurricane activity. That's not to say there weren't some serious hotspots – particularly the North and South Indian Ocean basins. But for anyone convinced that global warming is causing an increase in the intensity of the average hurricane, it's hard to make the case that 2007 serves as a data point in your favor.

The article is published in "thedailygreen" by their storm pundit, Mr. Mooney, with a long title "2007 Hurricane season does not support global warming link."

My reaction to this article is understandably "So what? Why should anyone be surprised by the common sense?" But it is somewhat refreshing nevertheless to see some frank assessment on what was really happened. I can't help wonder if Mr. Mooney will still be welcome by the Gorelobal warming gang, especially his conclusion of the article:
But nevertheless, the official 15 storm total – which, to be sure, could increase by the end of the year, but probably not by more than one storm at the absolute most – clearly does not help the argument that global warming is intensifying hurricanes. (emphasize added)
In Mathematics any well constructed theory will be immediately nullified if a counter example exists. So will the overwhelming number of scientists agreed theory that global warming intensifies hurricane be nullified by the 2007 fact? Of course not! Why? Because Mathematics is only a science, but global warming is really a kind of religion. Algore dropped out of divinity school but become the high priest of Gorelobal warming after all!

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